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GlobalFlows

A live picture of how money and the real economy are moving together — cash, rates, growth, inflation, and fear — and what that mix usually means for bonds, credit, and risk assets.

The idea

Read left to right. Cheap or scarce cash shows up first. Rates and the dollar pass that pressure around. Growth and inflation say what households and firms are actually doing. Risk tells you whether markets are calm or stressed. When you know that mix, you can ask the useful question: so what for assets?

  1. Liquiditycash & plumbing
  2. Ratesyields · dollar
  3. Growthreal activity
  4. Inflationprice pressure
  5. Riskfear & spreads

All

Every indicator in one list.

FX

The dollar and major currencies. The broad dollar also feeds Rates.

Markets

Stocks, credit, bonds, commodities, crypto — how the tape is reacting.

The five lights

Each colored light is a short status for one part of the machine — Liquidity, Rates, Growth, Inflation, or Risk. Behind every light is a handful of related public indicators. Together they decide whether that part of the machine looks easy, mixed, or tight.

  • Tap a light — the table jumps to the indicators that set it, highlighted in blue.
  • Tap “Tap for who voted” — see those indicators, their scores, and a short plain-language read.
  • 1y · 2y · 5y — how far back to compare “today” against. Two years is the default. One year moves faster; five years is slower.
Green — easier / stronger / hotter / risk-on Amber — mixed / mid Red — tighter / softer / colder / risk-off

So what

Tap the summary under the lights. That opens So what — what this mix usually means for two big risks, what else on the tape agrees or argues, and what would change the call. The numbers are fixed first; the words follow.

Duration risk

How painful rising rates and sticky inflation are for long bonds and other assets that get paid far in the future. Rising means discount rates are biting harder.

Credit risk

How worried markets are that borrowers still pay. Built from growth, fear gauges, credit spreads, and whether bank lending is speeding up or slowing down.

Confirm

Extra checks that line up with the story — or don’t — such as how stocks and bonds are moving together, the dollar, gold, or bitcoin versus cash conditions.

Falsify

The clean flip that would undo the read. Example: inflation turns cold while growth stays strong softens a “duration is hard” call.

A simple path through the screen

  1. Pick the window 1y, 2y, or 5y — how far back “normal” goes.
  2. Read the five lights Left to right: cash → rates → growth → inflation → fear.
  3. Open one light See the indicators behind it (blue rows) and the short explanation.
  4. Open today’s summary So what — duration, credit, confirm, falsify.
  5. Glance at Markets Fresh last prices when you open the app; the comparison stats update with the daily data pull.

Where the numbers come from

Public sources: FRED, the New York Fed’s markets data, and Yahoo Finance charts. A morning job refreshes the full table. Markets last prices can update again when you open the app.

Last data pull —
Coverage —
Today’s check —

How a light gets its color

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Glossary

Reading the numbers

Percentile
Where today’s level sits versus the last 1, 2, or 5 years. 90th means higher than about 90% of readings in that stretch.
z-score
How far today’s level is from the average over that same stretch, in standard deviations. +1 means one step above average.
1 · 2 · 5
Years of history used for the comparison. Default is 2.

On the screen

Lights
The five status colors for liquidity, rates, growth, inflation, and risk. Tap one to see the indicators behind it.
Markets
Stocks, commodities, crypto, gold, and related prices — how risk assets are behaving, separate from the five lights.
Last print
The newest market price shown when you open Markets. Age sits beside the Markets title; the circle refreshes. Listed prices can lag about 15 minutes. Percentile and z-score still come from the daily table.
So what
The panel behind today’s summary: duration risk, credit risk, what confirms, and what would falsify.
Duration risk
How rate moves change the value of cash flows that arrive later (bonds, and stock valuations that lean on the far future).
Credit risk
Doubt that cash flows arrive at all — spreads, growth, and risk appetite.
Credit impulse
Whether bank lending growth is speeding up or slowing down. Central-bank plumbing is one cash story; private lending is the other.
Nominal − real GDP
Nominal growth minus real growth — how much of the expansion is prices versus actual activity.

Plumbing & rates

Asset (central bank)
Something the central bank owns — usually bonds, sometimes ETFs or loans.
Reserves
Cash banks hold at the Fed. Fuel for money markets.
TGA
Treasury General Account — the government’s checking account at the Fed. When it fills, cash leaves the banking system.
ON RRP
Overnight reverse repo — cash parked at the Fed overnight. When it rises, less cash sits in markets.
Net liquidity
Fed assets minus TGA minus ON RRP. Rising usually means more cash in markets.
Real yield
Yield after inflation (TIPS). Higher real yields tighten conditions for risk assets.
Breakeven
The inflation rate priced into markets from nominal bonds versus TIPS.
Curve (2s10s)
Long yield minus short yield. Negative (inverted) often warns of a slowdown.

Fear & credit

OAS
Option-adjusted spread — extra yield a corporate bond pays over Treasuries. Wider means more credit stress.
VIX / MOVE
Implied volatility — equity fear (VIX) and Treasury fear (MOVE).